2024 NFL Draft Prospect Rankings: QB Edition (3/9/24)

Welcome to the 2024 NFL Prospect Rankings: QB Edition.

Player Comp = *(floor/ceiling)

1.) Caleb Williams – 6’1″ 214 lbs. – USC (Baker Mayfield/Russell Wilson)

The QB 1a. of this draft class. Stocky build with pristine arm mechanics. Williams possesses the ability to make any NFL throw necessary and to put the ball where he wants it. He’s precise, not just ballpark accurate. He delivers from various arm angles, tempos and velocity. Exhibits proper technique and torque. Has exceptional improv ability. Hardworking. Works best with a deep threat wideout.

There will be concerns about his height and that is an aspect that he can’t change. The best sub-6’2″ QBs have found a way to triumph that narrative through incredible tape study and anticipation within the pocket. He needs to learn how to play on schedule and protect the football. Another gripe will be about his personality. He’s no different than other QB’s of recent memory who have obsessive passion for the game and eccentric habits and interests.

2.) Jayden Daniels – 6’4″ 210 lbs. – LSU (Trey Lance/Lamar Jackson)

Daniels has been on my radar since he played at Arizona State. He plays with the best pace of the draft. He controls the offense and delivers catchable passes that allow receivers to run after the catch. Ties footwork to route timing. Compact and efficient delivery. Can make every throw and is arguably the best deep passer in the draft.

A slender athlete but elusive. Needs to protect himself better from big hits. He’s tough. Will need an NFL weight program. He was surrounded by a lot of talent at LSU but was a ceiling raiser. He wasn’t carried by any means. Outside of events that they can’t control, Daniels and Williams are the Top 2 QBs in this draft.

3.) Drake Maye – 6’4″ 223 lbs. – North Carolina (Drew Lock/Justin Herbert)

Maye has the potential to be the best QB of the draft. He has the size and improv ability to make it happen. He towers over his offensive linemen in the pocket and delivers darts downfield. He possesses the ability to subtlety drift in the pocket to buy time. Big physique with room to add muscle. He didn’t have a ton of help at UNC on offense. You’d like to see him in a system in the NFL where he has to do less on a play-to-play basis.

When it comes to footwork, he has a ton of unnecessary movement. 3 step drops turn into 5 or 6 steps for little to no reason. He has to speed up his process. Does not always show high-level decision-making as it pertains to reading coverage and leverage. He needs to hone-in on his mechanics from top to bottom. It creates inconsistent ball placement, especially when throwing horizontal, stationary targets and deep passes. He can be scattershot and sporadic at times. He profiles as an athletic, big framed QB with second reaction ability but will probably need to sit a year to learn the intricacies of the position.

4.) Bo Nix – 6’2″ 214 lbs. – Oregon (Tyrod Taylor/Andy Dalton)

Nix is incredibly smart and well prepared. He had a great understanding of that Will Stein Oregon offense. He plays with probably the second-best pace of the draft. He has exceptional footwork. Delivers a good ball that has sufficient velocity and ball placement. He’s faced adversity early in his career. Very mature prospect. High upside regardless of age. He has a compact build and is an above average athlete for the position.

The issues arise with Nix, when it comes to staying in the pocket when the progression and timing calls for it. Consistently making tight window throws is something I’d like to see more from him as well. Other than that, you can count on him being game ready once he’s comfortable within a system.

5.) Michael Penix Jr. – 6’2″ 216 lbs. – Washington (Kellen Mond/Geno Smith)

Penix Jr.’s resume is undeniable. His ability to show up for big games and to keep on battling is apparent. He ran the Deboer/Grubb offense well at Washington. He has big hands, long arms and a frame that can add muscle. Quick release throwing style with more than enough velocity to get the ball downfield. He plays the position instinctively and makes the right throw at the right time.

The issue that occurs is in between the big plays and wow throws. His short accuracy is inconsistent, and his mechanics can get funky and rushed. He has a substantial injury history that includes multiple non-contact injuries. His medicals seem to be clean, however. What you’re getting with Penix Jr. is a QB that once he learns the offense and gets settled in, you’re going to have a competitor that can lead your offense down the field. That’s why the Seattle Seahawks fit makes so much sense. In Seattle he’d have his pro comp Geno Smith to learn from and his college OC Ryan Grubb with him.

6.) Spencer Rattler – 6’0″ 211 lbs. – South Carolina (Colt McCoy/Brock Purdy)

Rattler had some of the best tape of this class despite not having the numbers of some of the highly touted guys tentatively ranked ahead of him. He didn’t have much of a supporting cast and operated that South Carolina offense the best that he could. He can put the ball anywhere he wants it and packs a lot of velocity coming from his small frame. He’s poised and has a good pocket presence. You often watch him and wonder how much more on schedule and talked about he would be, had he played at Oregon or even Michigan.

Any past character concerns are debunked and in the past. He’s silenced that, he’s too arrogant narrative and dealt with it as good or better than any prospect that I’ve evaluated. His size is a concern. There are not many case studies of 6ft. QBs lighting up the league. I think if you put him in a Shanahan offense, he’d put up Brock Purdy type of numbers.

7.) J.J. McCarthy – 6’3″ 220 lbs. – Michigan (Matt Corral/Tony Romo)

McCarthy has been the most talked about QB of the draft class. He’s been ranked as high as QB3. I’ve had him as high as QB4. He’s been Top 5 for many, just based off of what he could become. He’s not the only QB with that designation though. I think that’s what people forget. There is more than one QB in this class that if they get in a better system, around better talent and refine their skillset, then they will be awesome. I always return to the tape. And he had the 7th best tape in my opinion. A linear runner that can run option plays, McCarthy is a good enough athlete to make plays in that fashion. He has second reaction ability, and produces high velocity on his throws, especially in the middle of the field. I think he’d be best in a quick game fast paced offense early in his career. He’s a high football character prospect.

He has inconsistent footwork and scattershot throwing mechanics. Lacks touch the further he throws. Not the type of thrower that can operate an offense that requires layered throws right now. With more volume, AS IS, the bad will overtake the good. He must work his craft and nuance as a professional QB. On his checklist should be, changing velocity and placement depending on situation and pass catcher body language and leverage. As well as timing up his footwork with the routes being ran. Much like with Maye, he may need to sit at least a year to learn these things.

His reduced role at Michigan has been a blessing in disguise because right now that mystery is serving him well. These lists are fluid for me and more of a way that I can tier talent as opposed to make the process binary. He’s in my Tier 2 that starts at QB4 and goes through QB7. All of these guys are situation dependent but if I had to go with the mean of how NFL coaches have developed QB talent recently, (and I don’t really try to critique coaches often) I’d trend towards this order. His pro comp Tony Romo started off slow then he didn’t do too bad once he figured some stuff out.

8.) Taulia Tagovailoa – 5’10” 200 lbs. – Maryland (Stetson Bennett/Kyler Murray)

Not many people are talking about Tua’s kid brother Taulia. I know when people see his frame and measurements, they become immediately disinterested but if you put on the tape, you will be pleasantly surprised. He’s a mega competitor. He’s had big time production in the BIG10. Quick release and has sufficient zip. Better athlete than given credit for. Is a legitimate +1 type of QB.

His size is a concern and he’s been injured in the past. He can compete for a QB3 (at minimum) role at the next level or be one of the best semi-pro QBs around.

9.) Michael Pratt – 6’3″ 217 lbs. – Tulane (Chad Henne/Ryan Tannehill)

Michael Pratt is in a three-way musical chair in this tier 3 of QBs. He has the most complete profile between Tagovailoa and Milton III. He has good size and baseline traits to work with. He can move the chains and run an offense efficiently while making the right reads. He possesses second reaction ability when the play breaks down and looks to make plays in the passing game. Pratt has some impressive wins at the collegiate level including leading Tulane to a win over QB1 Caleb Williams and USC in a bowl game. He showed big time poise in that 2022-2023 season matchup. He didn’t have much help at Tulane in 2023.

Level of comp will be a concern. Hand size not as much but I think it is noticeable based on how a QB consistently throws and deals with inclement weather. He has minor accuracy and ball placement issues at times. Overall Pratt should vie for a QB3 role at the next level and eventually an opportunity at QB2.

10.) Joe Milton III – 6’5″ 235 lbs. – Tennessee (Jacob Eason/Daunte Culpepper)

Milton III has a big arm. He’s got SEC level experience. When he runs, it can be a significant advantage because of his size.

Right now, he lacks polish, pace, and high-end processing. He’s a see it throw it anticipatory thrower. He regressed as the season went on at Tennessee. Currently he’s a developmental fixer upper type but if he improves his collective QB nuance and football I.Q., he could be a solid late round gem.

Devin Leary, Sam Hartman, Jordan Travis, Tanner Mordecai, Emory Jones, J.T. Daniels, Kurtis Rourke, Kedon Slovis, Carter Bradley, Jack Plummer, John Rhys Plumlee, Jason Bean, Austin Reed, Ben Bryant, Garret Shrader, Brennan Armstrong, Frank Harris, Jeremy Moussa, Mike DiLiello, Zach Calzada, Andrew Peasley, Gerry Bohanon, Darren Grainger, Spencer Sanders, Jason Brown, Tyler Buchner.

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